By Mr.J 2019-11-27 13:59:51
Some articles on the Internet recently said, China's decline in energy efficiency has caused concern. Looking at the statistics for 2018, electricity increased by 8.5%, while GDP increased by 6.6%, and the power elasticity coefficient was 1.29. In other words, for every 1.29% increase in electricity, GDP only increases by 1%. Among them, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry increased by 7%, while the output value increased by 5.8%, and the power elasticity coefficient was 1.20. In other words, for every 1.20% increase in electricity, the output value of the secondary industry only increases by 1%.
From these data, energy efficiency is indeed reduced, which is contrary to China's technological progress and industrial structure improvement in recent years. However, in the past 40 years, it can be traced back even further. If we take a period of 10 years, China's electric power elasticity coefficient has been stably maintained at about 0.8%, and the deviation is small. In other words, every 0.8% increase in electricity can create a 1% increase in GDP. This reflects the continuous progress of technology and the continuous upgrading of the industrial structure, which is in line with the general law of development.
In some years, the coefficient of power elasticity can be as high as 1.5 or even higher, while in lower years it is only 0.35. The upgrading of the industrial structure and the change of technology are a gradual and gradual process. It is impossible to have such a big ups and downs in a year. It is often affected by the climate of the public opinion at that time, and the statistical data is out of order. If calculated every 10 years, these abnormal fluctuations will be smoothed out (corrected) and basically maintained at an elastic coefficient of 0.8, which is in line with the law of economic development. Statistical institutions, research institutions, and scholars, if you are interested, you can list and analyze the power elasticity coefficient for 40 years. We have done this work in the past.
Look at the energy consumption of the industry in 2018.
Several industries with large energy consumption, one is the power generation industry. Now the energy consumption per unit of electricity is decreasing every year. At present, the energy consumption of coal power in China has dropped to 308 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour, which is an advanced position in the world. No deterioration in energy efficiency is seen in this area. The ratio of output and energy consumption of the iron and steel industry in 2018 is 1.23, which means that output increases by 1.23, energy consumption only increases by 1, and energy efficiency is improved. In the past 20 years, raw materials, energy, and labor costs have all risen, while steel prices have fallen, reflecting the technological progress and energy consumption of the steel industry. Other large energy consumers: Petrochemicals, building materials, etc. are basically the same, so it is difficult to explain the decline in energy efficiency in 2018.
So why the power elasticity coefficient in 2018 will be 1.29, and the elasticity coefficient of secondary power will be 1.2? I think it has something to do with the public opinion that is declining China's economic downturn. Some economists at home and abroad even suspect that China's GDP growth in 2018 is 6.6%, and some analysts believe that GDP growth is only a few points. If this is the case, it is difficult to explain the 8.5% increase in electricity and the 7% increase in secondary power, which can only be explained by the decline in China's energy efficiency. Our statistics are also affected by the rapid decline of the Chinese economy. We have learned some lessons from the past. We would rather press the water for the statistical reports reported below, so as not to be overblown. These will subtly affect China's statistical data. Statistical data should also be supported by physical production data such as electricity and transportation.